龍應台：北京未開一槍，已給台灣社會帶來裂痕
In Taiwan, Friends Are Starting to Turn Against Each Other
文/紐約時報龍應台（2023年4月19日）
A friend of mine in Taipei recently wrote a passionate Facebook post urging young people in Taiwan to prepare for war with China. The only way to respond to Chinese threats to seize the island was, he argued, with strength; anything else was a delusion. Despite being in his 60s, he vowed to take up arms if necessary.
我在台北的一個朋友最近在Facebook上寫了一篇充滿激情的帖子，敦促台灣的年輕人做好與中國開戰的準備。他認為，面對中國的奪島威脅，唯一的辦法是靠實力；其他一切都是幻想。儘管已是花甲之年，他還是發誓只要有需要，他會拿起武器。
It’s become a troublingly common sentiment in Taiwan, and I messaged him privately to say that strength should be only a part of Taiwan’s strategy, that our politicians and other public figures should show true courage by reaching out to China to somehow de-escalate. When a stronger bully threatens you, shouldn’t you first try to defuse the situation?
這種情緒在台灣之普遍令人感到不安，我私下給他發訊息說，實力應該只是台灣戰略的一部分，我們的政治人士和其他公眾人物應該表現出真正的勇氣，與中國接觸，以某種方式緩和局勢。當一個更強的霸凌者威脅你的時候，難道不應該先嘗試去緩和局勢嗎？
“Don’t be a capitulator,” he shot back.
「不要做投降派，」他反駁。
That exchange, pitting friend against friend, is emblematic of the damage that China already is inflicting on Taiwan without a single shot having been fired.
從這種友人之間的交鋒可以看到，中國未開一槍，就已經對台灣造成了怎樣的傷害。
The threat of Chinese aggression, and how to confront it, is dividing Taiwan’s society. To accuse someone of being a traitorous “Communist licker” or, conversely, of fanning tension by being dangerously anti-China has become the norm. Fear of conflict with China is tearing at tolerance, civility and our confidence in the democratic society we have painstakingly built. When 37 current and former Taiwan scholars last month issued an open letter calling for Taipei to chart a middle path between China and the United States and criticizing U.S. “militarism,” they were attacked as naïve and soft on China. This division and distrust play right into China’s hands.
中國的侵犯威脅，以及如何應對這威脅，正在分裂台灣社會。指責對方叛國「舔共」，或者反過來，指責對方通過危險的抗中言行煽動緊張局勢已經成為常態。與中國發生衝突的恐懼正在摧毀我們的寬容和文明，以及對我們苦心建設的民主社會的信心。上個月，37名現任和前任台灣學者發表公開信，呼籲台北在中美之間走一條中間道路，批評美國的「軍事主義」，他們被攻擊為天真和對中國軟弱。這樣的分歧和懷疑正中中國下懷。
The possibility of war with China comes up in nearly every dinner conversation in Taiwan.
在台灣，與中國開戰的可能性幾乎出現在每一次晚餐談話中。
During a recent gathering of friends, our discussion centered on whether China would bomb Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest producer of advanced computing chips, to destroy one of our greatest economic assets. Or would the United States drop the bombs to prevent TSMC from falling into China’s hands? Would Taiwan’s nuclear power plants be blown up in a scorched-earth policy to turn the island into a radioactive wasteland, useless to China?
在最近的一次朋友聚會上，我們討論的焦點是中國是否會轟炸世界上最大的先進計算晶片生產商台灣積體電路製造公司，以摧毀我們最大的經濟資產之一。又或者，美國是否會為了防止台積電落入中國之手而投下炸彈？台灣的核電站是否會因焦土政策而被炸毀，從而令這個島嶼變成對中國毫無用處的放射性荒地？
During a lunch that included military officials and strategists, a retired former high-ranking defense official said China could simply blockade Taiwan, which has only about an eight-day supply of natural gas; sever undersea telecommunication cables; or strangle us economically by cutting off trade. (Around 40 percent of Taiwan’s exports go to China or Hong Kong.) China, he said, could take the island without resorting to military action.
在一次有軍方和策略人士參加的午餐會上，一位退休的前國防高官說，中國可以直接封鎖台灣，台灣的天然氣儲備只能維持八天左右；中國還可以切斷海底通信電纜；或者通過切斷貿易在經濟上扼殺我們。（台灣約40%的出口流向中國或香港。）他說，中國可以在不訴諸軍事行動的情況下佔領這個島。
None of this is completely new for the people of Taiwan. We have lived in China’s shadow for more than 70 years, shaping who we are.
這一切對台灣人民來說都不是新鮮事。我們在中國的陰影下生活了70多年，這塑造了我們的身份。
When I was a schoolgirl in the 1950s, warnings like “Communist spies are all around you” covered the walls of classrooms, and the worst insult was to accuse someone of conspiring with the “Communist bandits” — the epithet that was used in Taiwan for decades to refer to the Chinese Communist Party.
20世紀50年代，當我還是學生的時候，教室的牆上貼滿了「小心匪諜就在你身邊」這樣的警告，最嚴重的侮辱是指責某人串通「共匪」——幾十年來，台灣一直用這個詞來指稱中國共產黨。
Although we were island dwellers, many of my generation never learned to swim because as children, we were afraid of the beach. After the former Nationalist government of China lost a civil war to Mao’s Communists and fled to Taiwan in 1949, an invasion was feared and martial law declared. Soldiers often patrolled beaches, toting rifles with shining bayonets, and islands near China’s coast were heavily mined. We were warned that Communist frogmen might swim ashore with camouflage-painted faces and knives between their teeth.
雖然我們是島民，但在我們這一代人中，許多人從沒學過游泳，因為我們從小害怕海灘。在內戰中敗給了毛澤東的共產黨後，中國的原國民政府於1949年退據台灣。因為擔心遭到入侵，台灣頒佈了戒嚴令。士兵們經常背著配有閃亮刺刀的步槍在海灘上巡邏，中國那一側海岸附近的島嶼布滿了地雷。我們被警告說，臉塗迷彩、口中銜刀的中共蛙人可能會游上岸來。
We’re proud of the vibrant democracy and economic success that we’ve built in spite of these conditions. We’ve shown that democracy can function in Chinese culture. This mix of anxiety, pride and perseverance is the essence of Taiwan’s character and something often overlooked by a world that tends to view Taiwan as a pawn in China’s rivalry with the United States. We are flesh and blood, too.
我們在這樣的境況之下建起了充滿活力的民主，並取得了經濟成功，為此我們感到自豪。我們已經證明，民主在中華文化環境裡是可以運轉的。這種焦慮、驕傲和堅持的混合是台灣性格的本質，而這一點往往被世界所忽視，世界總是視台灣為中美競爭中的一個棋子。然而我們也是有血有肉的人。
Our character is perhaps best exemplified away from the political noise of Taipei, in rural farming areas and fishing villages where people are prone to laughter, giving generous gifts of their produce and issuing spontaneous dinner invitations. Even here, opinions on China differ, but there is a common denominator of down-to-earth realism that I hope, for all our sakes, will prevail over the long run. It’s not that the common folk believe resisting China is futile but that Taiwan will always be within China’s immense gravitational pull and that pragmatism, even accommodation with China, might be preferable to war.
最能體現我們性格的，也許是在鄉村的農耕地區和漁村，那裡遠離台北的政治喧囂，人們總在歡笑，慷慨地送出自家土產，經常主動請客人回家吃晚飯。即使在那裡，對中國的看法也不盡相同，但有一個共同點，那就是樸素的務實主義，我希望，為了我們所有人的利益，這種務實能成為長期的主流觀念。這並不是說普通民眾認為抵抗中國是徒勞的，而是台灣永遠處於中國巨大的引力範圍內，講求實際，甚至與中國和解，可能比戰爭更可取。
A friend of mine, a deeply tanned farmer who grows wax apples, wakes in the predawn gloom each day, puts on a headlamp and carefully inspects his orchard for pests. He won’t say this publicly for fear of being attacked as a collaborator, but he supports unification with China simply because it is the land of his ancestors. People with the same heritage, culture and history should, he believes, be one nation. He wants a strong, prosperous China that stands tall in the world, with Taiwan a part of it. But, embodying the mixed feelings in Taiwan, he would still fight if war broke out, although for his home, family and village.
我的一個朋友，一位曬得黝黑的蓮霧農民，每天都在黎明前的昏暗中醒來，戴上頭燈，仔細檢查他的果園有沒有害蟲。他害怕被攻擊為通敵，不會公開這麼說，但他支持與中國統一，只是因為這是他祖先的土地。他認為，具有相同傳統、文化和歷史的人應該成為一個國家。他想要一個強大、繁榮、屹立於世界的中國，台灣也是其中的一部分。但是，他也懷揣著在台灣普遍存在的複雜情感，如果戰爭爆發，他仍然會戰鬥，不過是為了他的屋宅、親人和村莊。
Pan Chi-min, another farmer I know, cultivates Indian jujube trees on his orchard in southern Taiwan. China is his major market. The previous, more China-friendly Kuomintang (K.M.T.) government, which I served in, signed a trade agreement with China in 2010 that allowed his fruits to reach Chinese supermarkets within a few days. But after the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (D.P.P.) won the presidency in 2016, China tightened market access with a series of bans. Mr. Pan had to turn to Japan, which required an expensive journey to market lasting up to three weeks. The sweet, juicy fruits would often be tasteless by the time they reached Japanese dinner tables.
我認識的另一位農民潘志民（音）種植印度棗樹，他的果園位於台灣南部。中國是他的主要市場。上屆政府——由對中國更友好的國民黨領導，我曾在其中任職——在2010年與中國簽署了一項貿易協議，讓他的水果只用幾天就能到達中國的超市。但在有獨立傾向的民進黨於2016年贏得總統選舉後，中國通過一系列禁令收緊了市場准入。潘志民不得不轉向日本，進入市場需要花費長達三週的時間，成本高昂。原本甜美多汁的水果在到達日本人餐桌上時通常已經沒什麼味道了。
Mr. Pan reads the history of Tokugawa Ieyasu, an important 17th-century Japanese military ruler associated with patience and endurance, virtues which Mr. Pan feels Taiwan must adopt when facing China.
潘志民閱讀了德川家康的歷史，這位17世紀重要的日本軍事統治者以耐心和毅力著稱，潘志民認為，台灣在面對中國時必須具備這些品質。
“When the fighter jets fly overhead, you know what we farmers do?” he asked. “We bend down and keep tilling the land.”
「當戰鬥機從頭頂飛過時，你知道我們農民會幹什麼嗎？」他問。「我們彎腰繼續耕種土地。」
On the ruggedly beautiful east coast of Taiwan where I have a home, Pacific Ocean waves crash on the rocky shore, fruit trees ripen in the sun, and the pace of life has changed little over the decades.
我在台灣崎嶇美麗的東海岸有一個住所，太平洋的海浪拍打著岩岸，果樹在陽光下成熟，幾十年來生活的節奏幾乎沒怎麼變過。
Here, too, China is on everyone’s mind. In August, when China held live-fire military drills in the waters around Taiwan to express its anger over a visit to Taipei by the U.S. speaker of the House at the time, Nancy Pelosi, I watched from home as Taiwan fighter jets roared offshore, sending village dogs skittering under the bushes. My neighbor Wu Fang-fang texted me. Each household should grow a different vegetable, she suggested, which we can trade with one another if the military exercises erupt into a war that disrupts food supplies.
在這裡，中國也佔據著每個人的思緒。去年8月，中國在台灣周邊海域舉行實彈演習，以表達對時任美國眾議院議長南希·佩洛西訪問台北的憤怒，當時我在家裡，看著台灣戰鬥機在海上呼嘯而過，惹得村裡的狗在灌木叢下亂竄。鄰居吳芳芳（音）發來簡訊。她建議，每戶人家都應該種植不一樣的蔬菜，如果這場軍事演習演變成戰爭，糧食供應中斷，我們可以互相交換。
She asked: And what about power generators?
她問：另外，要不要考慮發電機？
The grandest feasts in the neighborhood are at the home of Chen Chi-ho, a fisherman who calls friends over when the catch is especially good. Mr. Chen learned how to land swordfish — with a traditional method using harpoons — at the age of 13 from his father, who had learned it from a Japanese fisherman who remained after Japan’s half-century colonization of Taiwan ended in 1945. With amazing balance, dexterity and aim, Mr. Chen, now in his late 50s, stands at the bow of his boat as it heaves up and down and hurls a harpoon at the thrashing, six-foot-long fish.
這一帶最盛大的宴會是在漁民陳志和（音）的家裡舉行的，他在漁獲特別多的時候會叫朋友過來。陳志和13歲時從他父親那裡學會了如何使用傳統方法叉捕劍魚，而他的父親又是從一位日據結束後留在台灣的日本漁民那裡學的，日本於1945年結束了對台灣半個世紀的殖民統治。現年50多歲的陳志和身手敏捷，平衡和瞄準能力令人驚嘆，他站在船頭，隨著船上下起伏，向一條身長六英尺、活蹦亂跳的魚擲出魚叉。
If war broke out, Mr. Chen said while hosting a recent dinner, he could sail to the Japanese island of Okinawa, about 500 miles away. “Anybody need a lift?” he joked. Someone asked what it would cost to apply for Japanese residency papers. Another suggested it would get boring eating sashimi every day. We all laughed.
在近日宴請賓客時，陳志和說，如果戰爭爆發，他可以航行到大約800公里外的日本沖繩島。「有人需要我載一程嗎？」他開玩笑說。有人問申請日本居留身份需要多少錢。還有人說每天吃生魚片會很無聊。我們都笑了。
But Mr. Chen told me that if China invaded Taiwan, he would resist, “like the Ukrainians did,” not because he harbors ill will toward China — though Beijing’s threatening behavior rubs him wrong — but because those who draw their livelihood from the sea are accustomed to danger; they fight to survive.
但陳志和告訴我，如果中國入侵台灣，他會「像烏克蘭人那樣」抵抗，不是因為他對中國懷有惡意——儘管北京的威脅行為讓他反感——而是因為那些靠海為生的人習慣了危險；他們為生存而戰。
I asked whether his son would take up arms.
我問他兒子會不會拿起武器。
He sighed. Many younger Taiwan residents — absorbed in their mobile phones, socializing and other leisure pursuits — seem oblivious to the danger, he said. Yet he wouldn’t judge someone for not wanting to fight or for holding different views.
他嘆了口氣。他說，許多年輕的台灣居民——沉迷於手機、社交和其他休閑活動——似乎沒有意識到這種危險。然而，如果有人不想打仗或持不同觀點，他不會去批判。
Taiwan is set to hold a pivotal presidential election in January, and the question of whether to confront China or pursue conciliation will have significant implications for us all in the months ahead. If the K.M.T. wins, tension with China might ease; if the D.P.P. retains power, who knows?
台灣將於明年1月舉行關鍵的總統選舉，是對抗中國還是尋求和解的問題將在未來幾個月對我們所有人產生重大影響。如果國民黨獲勝，與中國的緊張關係可能會緩和；如果民進黨保住了權力，誰知道呢？
Mr. Chen says it won’t matter anyway: The United States and China decide our fate.
陳志和說，反正都無所謂：美國和中國決定我們的命運。
Who would he blame if war broke out? I asked.
我問他，如果爆發戰爭，他會怪誰。
“Whoever fires the first shot.”
「誰先開槍怪誰。」
龍應台是台灣作家、散文家和文化評論家。她於2012年至2014年擔任台灣第一任文化部長。她的著作包括《大江大海一九四九》。
翻譯：紐約時報中文網
